A chance for Mercedes and Ferrari to catch up? Who will benefit from F1’s unintended spring break

The cancellation of the Chinese Grand Prix - originally meant to take place this weekend on April 16 - has resulted in F1’s longest-ever season being broken up by a highly unusual four-week gap. 

We’ve considered what the unintended pause could mean for the class of 2023 ahead of a relentless run of races to the summer when F1 resumes with the Azerbaijan Grand Prix on April 30. 

A chance for Mercedes to catch up? 

After a lacklustre start to the season, Mercedes enjoyed a notable jump in performance last time out in Australia which provided the team with a much-needed boost heading into the break. 

Mercedes are buoyed about the potential of upgrades they have in the pipeline, though they aren’t set to arrive until the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix in late May. 

Unlike the traditional ‘summer break’ in August, teams do not have to observe a mandatory factory shutdown period, meaning they are free to continue their respective development pushes. That gives Mercedes a clear run to focus on improving their W14 car without the distraction of having to go racing for most of April. 

"I think it's good for the team to really sit down and focus on bringing upgrades to the car,” said seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton. 

"I wish we were racing personally but I'll try and make the best use of it - I haven't figured out what I'm going to do throughout the whole time.

"But, it'll mostly be training and keeping busy.”

And Fernando Alonso, whose Aston Martin team have been the surprise package of 2023 thanks to a sensational transformation from midfield also-rans to front-runners, is wary about a rival fightback as F1’s development war hots up. 

“After a few events from now on, I think the cars will change a lot, in a few areas and a few developments,” Alonso said in Melbourne.

“We have to wait and see. I think very soon, from Baku or Imola, we will see the teams changing a few parts in the cars. And maybe that changes, also, how competitive you feel.”

Can Ferrari iron out their issues? 

Like Mercedes, Ferrari are also playing catch up following their worst start to an F1 season since 2009. 

An awful start to the new campaign has left Ferrari a distant fourth in the championship standings, almost 100 points adrift of leaders Red Bull. 

Charles Leclerc has already suffered a hammer blow to his title hopes after failing to finish two of the first three races, leaving him with just six points. Meanwhile, teammate Carlos Sainz is yet to better his P4 from the Bahrain season-opener. 

Can Ferrari take advantage of the break to make progress and address their weaknesses, including engine unreliability and tyre degradation issues?

“I think in the situation we are in as a team, we take this as an opportunity to work as much as possible during this break, in order to get upgrades as quickly as possible and be as competitive as we want sooner in this season,” said Leclerc.

“It’s still a very, very long season. We are fully motivated to get back on top and we’ll try to use these weeks [before Azerbaijan] in the best way possible.”

Will it hinder Verstappen’s momentum? 

The break could be seen as coming at a bad time for Max Verstappen, given his supreme form in the opening three races.

Verstappen has been unstoppable - reliability gremlin in Jeddah qualifying aside - and looks well on his way to taking a third consecutive world title after a pair of peerless victories in Bahrain and Australia. 

Could the four-week break hinder the Dutchman’s purple streak of momentum? 

It may actually turn out to be a blessing in disguise, giving Verstappen the chance to regain full fitness after illness ahead of the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix left him feeling like he was “missing a lung”. 

"It's a bit weird to have three weeks off, especially that early in the season," the two-time world champion said. 

"A couple of weeks ago I would say that I was not looking forward to it but then I got really ill, and I've been struggling a bit since that time.

"So, for me now, these three weeks are just [about] getting back to full fitness, getting a full programme in.

"In a way, it's probably nice now. Normally, if you just feel well, I think I would also prefer to keep racing.”

Red Bull will be mindful about the impact their punishment for breaking the F1 cost cap will have on their development plans in the coming months.

What about F1’s rookie trio?

For F1’s rookies, the break will provide a rare chance to take stock and reflect on the starts they have made to their respective careers. 

Despite McLaren’s challenging start to the year, Oscar Piastri was able to score his first F1 points on home soil last time out in Albert Park. 

Although he does not have the most competitive machinery at his disposal, the young Australian is already living up to the hype and looks more of a match for teammate Lando Norris than Daniel Ricciardo ever was. 

Things have been a little tougher for Williams’ Logan Sargeant and AlphaTauri’s Nyck de Vries, who are the only drivers yet to score points this season. 

Sargeant has shown flashes of promise but also demonstrated that he is fallible, while de Vries has lagged behind teammate Yuki Tsunoda as he struggles to adapt to the difficult-to-drive AlphaTauri. 

Both will be glad to have an opportunity to digest and reset.